It’s getting hot in here…

This week I’ll be starting work on my first independent data science project. After quite a few rabbit hole sessions throughout the internet, I’ve finally settled down on a topic: I’ll be exploring the correlations between incidents of armed conflict and measures of climate change.

For some background, here’s a short video describing a Stanford study on the topic, published last year. You can find links to an article about the study and the study itself at the end of this post.

Disclaimer: just want to put out there that I’m neither an expert on climate change nor on international security studies. My main goal with this project is to apply my geographical expertise to a topic I’m curious about and for which I could find relevant, public data. Any and all feedback from people who know more about this than me is very welcome!

Datasets

unprocessed UCDP dataset

I‘ll be combining this with the Global Historical Climatology Network [GHCN] dataset which includes daily global climate measurements such as rainfall, temperatures, snowfall, average wind speed, etc., taken from more than 100.000 stations around the world.

Fine-grained Spatial Data

With this data, I hope to be able to construct a model which precisely maps the two phenomena by their respective locations, thereby going beyond the country-level descriptions of conflict we are used to hearing or reading about in the news. The contribution of my project, I hope, will be in the fine-grained detail of the analysis, allowing us to notice new patterns in the data. To do all this, I’ll be diving into the GeoPandas package.

Questions to Explore

  • How will I deal with the differences in precision regarding the geo-spatial references of the two datasets, i.e. at what spatial scale will I aggregate the data?
  • How will I account for the fact that climate change is a planetary phenomenon while the data is measured locally?
  • And of course the biggest question of all: can I even say anything about causality?

As the experts of the Stanford study point out, while there seem to be indications that incidents of armed conflict are increasing as Earth’s climate becomes more extreme, it is very difficult to draw a direct causal link between the two phenomena. What we should strive for, then, is “[u]nderstanding the multifaceted ways that climate may interact with known drivers of conflict”, such as socioeconomic development, the strength of government, inequalities in societies, and a recent history of violent conflict.

So to say something about causality, I will have to include data on these ‘known drivers of conflict’ as well. Let’s see how I far this rabbit hole goes!

Data Scientist & Communicator | M.Sc. Human Geography & Planning

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